NFL: AFC Contender/Pretender

AFC: Contender/Pretender 

As we get to the last seven weeks of games, we’ve seen teams in the AFC look elite one week to horrible the next. Look at the Ravens, who after beating division rival Pittsburgh last Sunday lost to the Seahawks yesterday. Pittsburgh has gone from good to bad to great to good. The Jets lost three games in a row at the beginning of the season. Buffalo and Cincinnati came out of the gate looking like actual football teams. The Patriots look mortal. With such a logjam in the conference, it’s time to clear up the AFC playoff picture...its time to decide whose a contender, and whose a pretender. 

Baltimore Ravens (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Baltimore is one of the most confusing teams I’ve ever watched. In some games, such as against the Jets and Steelers, they look like the best team in the league. Then, when they play teams like Arizona and Seattle, they barely win or lose. That’s a good sign for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but the Ravens have too good of a defense to falter late in the year. I don’t know if it will be out of the division or wild card, but Baltimore should be a team that plays deep into the winter. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Buffalo Bills (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): It may be too soon, but you have to wonder if the Bills are re-thinking that $50 million extension they handed Ryan Fitzpatrick earlier this year. In the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick and the Bills have been held to poor performances against the Jets and Cowboys. Fitzpatrick completes a high percentage of his passes, but his arm is weak and he’s starting to make poor decisions with his throws. The Bills still have two games against the Patriots and Jets, along wit match ups with scrappy teams like Denver, San Diego, and Miami. They could be right back in the thick of things with victories over New England and New York, but I get the feeling that the slipper is coming off of this cinderella team. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Yesterday, for the first time all season, Andy Dalton looked like a rookie quarterback. Dalton threw two interceptions and struggled against the Pittsburgh defense. The Bengals got off to a hot start with he benefit of playing poor teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Over the next seven weeks, Dalton and the Bengals will have to play the Ravens (twice), the Steelers, and the Texans before meeting up with St. Louis and Arizona. I can see the Bengals getting to 9 wins, but it takes 10 to get into the playoffs from the AFC in this day and age. If they can steal a game from Pittsburgh or Baltimore, they might sneak in. I don’t see it. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Denver Broncos (4-5; tied for 2nd in AFC West): I’m going to get this out of the way right now, the Broncos are not as good as Cincinnati or Buffalo, but they might have a better chance at making the playoffs. Currently, Denver has the tie-breaker over Oakland and Kansas City. To me, it looks like no one really wants to win the division. The Chargers are playing like they never win, Oakland is as bipolar as any team, and Kansas City stinks. Denver, however, is a team with a great defense and a “quarterback” who can run it like no other. As history tells us, a strong defense and a good running game leads to victories. Somehow, someway, the Broncos keep winning. I don’t think they’re good, but they play in a division that can help them out. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Houston Texans (7-3; 1st place in the AFC South): It looks as though the Texans have already locked up the South, currently standing 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans. However, the Texans still have to play games against Atlanta and the Titans, so a late season collapse is not out of the question. For all the talk focused on the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers being the AFC elite, the texans have quietly put together a strong season. Should they stay the course and make the playoffs, they’ll be a scary team to face. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

New England Patriots (6-3; 1st place in the AFC East): For as vulnerable as the Patriots have looked this season, they seemed to have turned it around after defeating the Jets last night. Now in soul possession of first place in the East, don’t look for New England to lose any ground in the coming weeks. When all is said and done, the Patriots will more than likely enter the playoffs with a first round bye and a top seed out of the AFC.

Verdict: CONTENDER

New York Jets (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): The Jets had a chance to take first place in the East last night and squandered it. Corner man Donald Strickland got exposed by Rob Gronkowski all night. Now the Jets will have to compete with Buffalo, Cincinnati, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore for a wild card seed. They hold a tie breaker over Buffalo, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, and Bills in the next seven weeks. Knowledge says they can afford to lose two more games this season if they want to make the playoffs, but with that schedule it will be no easy feat. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Oakland Raiders (5-4; 1st place in the AFC West): I thought for sure that the Raiders would have fallen out of contention by now, considering Darren McFadden being injury-riddled and Carson Palmer being...well...Carson Palmer. However, the Raiders looked excellent Thursday night against the Chargers, with Palmer looking like he’s developing quite the chemistry with his receivers. With the Raiders in the division drivers seat, all they will have to do is hold off the Fighting Tebows of Denver to make the playoffs. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3; 1st place in the AFC North): If you were going to tell me that after 10 weeks the Steelers would have lost to Houston and the Ravens (twice) and still be in first place in the division, I would have called you crazy. For as weird as the Ravens have been this year, the Steelers have been weirder. Just like the Ravens, Pittsburgh can look dominant one week and porous the next. I think they have the experience and ability to make it into the playoffs out of the crowded North, but there is no telling who will win the division. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Tennessee Titans (5-4; 2nd place in the AFC South): Oh, what could have been for the Titans this year. With Peyton Manning out and the Colts playing awfully, the Titans had a legit shot to steal the division. Then, Kenny Britt was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Chris Johnson only just got his first 100-yard rushing day (and first touchdown) of the season yesterday. The Titans are only 2.5 games back of Houston, but it may be a little too much too late for Tennessee. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

PREDICTIONS:

AFC East- New England Patriots (1 seed)

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers (3 seed)

AFC South- Houston Texans (2 seed)

AFC West- Oakland Raiders (4 seed)

Wild Card- Baltimore Ravens (5 seed)

Wild Card- New York Jets (6 seed)

Wild Card Round- Pittsburgh over New York; Baltimore over Oakland

Divisional Round- Baltimore over New England; Pittsburgh over Houston

Championship Round- Pittsburgh over Baltimore 

NFL: Evaluating the Carson Palmer Trade

It has been the story of week 7 in the NFL, and may very well be the story of the year. Early Tuesday morning the Oakland Raiders traded their first round pick in the 2012 draft and a second rounder in the 2013 draft to the Cincinnati Bengals for former starting quarterback Carson Palmer. 

Palmer fell out of favor with the Bengals after demanding a trade in the off-season. When owner Mike Brown refused, Palmer stated that he had more than enough money to live off of, and formally announced his retirement from the Bengals and football. 

The Bengals decided to go a different route at quarterback while still playing a round of staring contest with Palmer, drafting stud wide receiver AJ Green and Andy Dalton in their first two picks of the 2011 draft. Green has put on a phenomenal campaign for Rookie of the Year, hauling in 29 catches for 453 yards and four touchdowns. Dalton rebounded from a shaky preseason to lead the Bengals to a 3-2 record, with 1,311 yards passing and 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. 

The Raiders got off to a quick start, moving to 4-2 on the season before quarterback Jason Campbell was lost for the foreseeable future to a broken collarbone. Not showing any faith in backup Kyle Boller, Hue Jackson and the Raiders made the move for Palmer before the trade deadline. Palmer and Jackson are familiar with each other, as Jackson was the Bengals wide receiver coach from 2004 to 2006. Jackson was also the USC offensive coordinator in 1999 and 2000 when Palmer was the starter. 

In looking at the trade, the Bengals are the clear winner. Adding two potential first round picks to an already young and talented team is vital to continuing the development of Dalton and Green on offense. I’m not really sure that Palmer, even at the height of his career with the Bengals, was ever worth two first round picks. The trade leaves the Raiders without a draft pick until the fifth round this year, although they could garner third round compensatory picks for departed tight end Zack Miller. The Raiders already lose a second rounder to the Patriots in the Richard Seymour trade, and a third rounder used in the Supplemental Draft on Ohio State “quarterback” Terrelle Pryor. Pryor clearly isn’t ready to take over as an NFL quarterback, and with Kyle Boller not being a starter since the early 2000s with the Ravens, Palmer was their last option. 

Palmer is relatively young, only 31 years old, but he has had a rich history of injuries. From his knee to his elbow, Palmer is not at the elite level that other 31 year old quarterbacks Tony Romo or Michael Vick. Palmer shouldn’t have trouble adjusting to the Raiders offense, its the same one he had his career year with in 2005 when Jackson was apart of the Bengals coaching staff. 

The real trouble that Palmer is going to have is developing a chemistry with the Raiders receivers. Ever wonder why Tom Brady and Wes Welker seem to be on the same page during every offensive play that the Patriots run? Its because Welker and Brady throw with each other every single day for the past four seasons. Palmer has no history with Jacoby Ford or Darius Heyward-Bey, the Raiders two top wideouts. 

The Raiders are a team of speed, their receivers are at their best when they run down the field and catch bombs. Palmer was never the type of quarterback to toss the ball downfield. Last season his average yards per pass was 6.78, the fourth lowest in his career. Palmer is not going to come into the season and instantly be a force for the Raiders. Last year he threw for 26 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, the latter being the most in his career. Its ignorant to think that Palmer sat on the couch all season and wasn’t working out, but there is a huge difference in tossing around on a local high school field and practicing with an NFL team. 

The Raiders are in a win now mode. They’re in prime position to make the playoffs this year, with the AFC West not being a powerhouse. Palmer and the Raiders first test is against the Chiefs, a team thats giving up 30 points per game. The Chargers are 4-1 this season, but have down so against very bad teams, with victories over the Chiefs, Broncos, Dolphins, and Vikings. If Palmer can come into the Raiders and successfully hand the ball off to Darren McFadden and occasionally be able to pick up the third and longs, the Raiders will be in a good spot. 

The trade is indefensible if your the Raiders. Your not getting a healthy quarterback with a strong arm in the prime of his career. Palmer has never been the same since tearing his ACL in the playoffs against the Steelers. I, for one, am rooting for Palmer and the Raiders. He wasn’t worth a first round pick, let alone two, but he could be just the quarterback that the Raiders need right now. 

NFL: Ranking the Quarterbacks Under the Age of 26

I made this list after realizing that in the past 4 seasons, the NFL season has seen a wave of young quarterbacks taking over the league. This list was originally supposed to be a 30-and-under group, but with established quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Ben Roethlisberger all in their 20s, it seemed better to rank the 11 starting quarterbacks under the age of 26. This list is not compiled based on skill today, but rather potential. An inside look at who will be the best quarterbacks 7-8 years from now, only on The Jockstrap. 

11. Curtis Painter- Indianapolis Colts (Age 26)

     Painter likely wouldn’t have been on this list if it weren’t for the neck injury of Peyton Manning and the concussion of Kerry Collins. Painter finds himself in the starting role for the 0-4 Colts. Although Painter has shown that he can throw a decent enough ball to Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, his ceiling is the lowest of this list. Painter will likely finish this season as the Indy starter and then remain a career backup for the remainder of his NFL days. 

In Ten Years: Backing up Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts

10. Blaine Gabbert- Jacksonville Jaguars (Age 21)

     So far Gabbert only has two starts under his NFL belt. It was a shock to all when the Jaguars cut longtime starter David Garrard before the season, only to name journey-man Luke McCown the opening day starter. Gabbert took over in week 3 after McCown threw four interceptions in New York against the Jets in week 2. Gabbert has all the skills to be a solid NFL quarterback; strong arm, good pocket presence, and mobile enough to get away from tacklers. The sample size for Gabbert isn’t nearly as large as some of the other names on this list, but as of right now I don’t see Gabbert as the “savior” of the franchise that Jacksonville was looking for when they drafted him 10th overall in last years draft. 

In Ten Years: Gabbert will be a solid NFL quarterback, but nothing to get crazy over. Starting somewhere, but maybe not Jacksonville. 

9. Colt McCoy- Cleveland Browns (Age 25)

     McCoy is a winner, anyone whose ever watched him play in college knows that. He has a really, really weak arm by all NFL standards, but his mobility when the pocket collapses is really something. McCoy reminds me of someone who will never throw for 25+ touchdowns or make a Pro Bowl, but someone who will keep his team in games and maybe make a few playoff appearances. I would really like to see what McCoy could do with a receiving core where the #1 wasn’t named Mohamed Massaquoi. 

In Ten Years: If he’s still in Cleveland, a fan favorite for a franchise that has been heartbroken at the quarterback position over and over again. If it doesn’t last in Cleveland, he’ll be a great backup or solid starter somewhere. 

8. Andy Dalton- Cincinnati Bengals (Age 23)

     Picking between Dalton and McCoy was tough for who was higher on the list. They are very much the same, Dalton was just as much of a winner in college as McCoy was. The only reason Dalton is higher on the list is because of his makeup. Dalton looks and plays like someone who will succeed in the NFL. The only problem is, he plays for the Bengals. The combo of Dalton to AJ Green will be one that will have Bengals fans salivating over for years to come. 

In Ten Years: A few 25+ touchdown seasons, maybe a playoff appearance or two. 

7. Joe Flacco- Baltimore Ravens (Age 26)

     This is the part of the list where fairly established quarterbacks are ranked pretty low. Flacco was anointed as the long awaited “elite” quarterback the Ravens have lacked since their inception in 1996. Since he was drafted, I really haven’t seen Flacco progress dramatically. He’ll have his 3 touchdown days every now and again, but most of the time you’ll be seeing a game manager, and nothing more. Flacco possesses and arm that rivals that of any other quarterback in the league, but that means nothing if your not accurate and clutch in big moments. 

In Ten Years: I could see Flacco leading the Ravens deep into the playoffs, maybe even a Super Bowl birth down the line. The window is closing, however, with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis getting up there in age. 

6. Matt Ryan- Atlanta Falcons (Age 26)

     Coming out of Boston College in 2007, Ryan was easily the best and most NFL ready quarterback in the draft. Since then, he’s led his team to two playoff appearances,  three winning seasons, and an NFL best 14-2 record in 2010. However, I don’t believe that Ryan will be able to elevate his game high enough to get into the discussion of the Manning-Brees-Brady-Rodgers status. Ryan will throw for a lot of touchdowns and win a lot of games, but so far he has yet to win a playoff game, and that is a big red flag for his potential. 

In Ten Years: A fan favorite for the Falcons, taking them to several playoffs and even winning a few postseason games. Will make the Pro Bowls and have the stats, maybe even an MVP. But I don’t see a Lombardi Trophy in his future. 

5. Josh Freeman- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age 23)

     Freeman is the type of quarterback that scouts salivate over. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s clutch. Last Sunday Freeman notched his 7th career come from behind victory in only 3 seasons as a starter. He wins, and he’s doing it will a pretty lackluster supporting cast. The only problem I have with Freeman is that I feel he has been overhyped, and that is hard to do when you play in Tampa. Freeman’s style of play is also an injury waiting to happen. Looking at it now, his career can go two ways: the next Ben Roethlisberger or the next Daunte Culpepper. 

In Ten Years: He’ll have his fair share of injury-prone seasons, but I’m confident that he’ll lead the Bucs to the playoffs one day. The only problem is playing in a division with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan quarterbacking the other teams. 

4. Mark Sanchez- New York Jets (Age 24)

     Its probably not the best idea to rank Sanchez #4 after putting up the worst ever total quarterback ranking last week against the Ravens (0.6), but I have high hopes for Mark...and its not because I’m a Jets fan. Sanchez possesses the tools that you look for in a quarterback. He may be small by some measures, but the guy is a flat out winner. 4-2 in the playoffs in his first two seasons is a stat that not even Tom Brady can boast about. Sanchez will make a whole bunch of people scream with his poor decisions and average arm strength, but looking at this list if my team was down in the fourth quarter, I would want the Sanchize behind center. 

In Ten Years: Will have a successful career in New York. Will not be shocked if he leads them to more AFC Championship games, and a Super Bowl appearance is not out of the question. A solid offensive line would boost Sanchez’ turnover rate and completion percentage dramatically.

3. Matt Stafford- Detroit Lions (Age 23)

     Its great that this season were finally seeing what a healthy Matt Stafford can do. He has all the skill in the world, and it doesn’t hurt to have the most physically dominant wide receiver in the game on his side. The one thing that will forever hinder Stafford is his injuries. A china doll behind center is not a good sign, even with a good offensive line like they have in Detroit. The Lions, like Stafford, are young and ready to win both now and in the future. 

In Ten Years: Stafford will be a god in Detroit. Won’t be shocked if they make the playoffs this year or in the future. Will make Pro Bowl’s and garner MVP votes, but will miss at least another full season due to injuries. 

2. Sam Bradford- St. Louis Rams (Age 23)

     Bradford, like Stafford, is a site to see when healthy. One of the most accurate quarterbacks in the game right now to go along with a good deep ball. The only problem with Bradford is that his team is awful. The offensive line, receiving core, and defense all stink. Bradford is the face of the franchise, and will be for years to come. If he can stay healthy (he has so far in the NFL), and the Rams get him someone to pass to, he’ll turn a whole bunch of heads. 

In Ten Years: Will be a top-5 quarterback in the league. Pro Bowl’s, awards, there all coming his way. Will win the NFC West plenty of times, especially if it remains anemic. 30+ touchdown thrower for sure. 

1. Cam Newton- Carolina Panthers (Age 22)

     All spring and summer everyone talked about how big of a bust Newton was going to be. We all saw the “Gruden QB Camp” video where he couldn’t even draw a play from the Auburn playbook. We all knew that the kid was going to be the smartest quarterback of all time, that he may have a flash here or there of being a force...but did anybody see this coming? Newton came out of the gate with back-to-back 400 yard passing games, and through the first quarter of the season has racked up 1,386 yards passing, an 84.5 quarterback rating, and 9(!) total touchdowns; 4 on the ground and 5 in the air. Newton is a physical specimen the likes the NFL has never seen. a 6 foot 5 quarterback who runs like a wideout and barrels over defenders like a fullback. Who knows if the Panthers will be any good this season or the next, but one thing that is for sure is that Cam Newton is going to continue to drop jaws. 

In Ten Years: A Pro Bowler, fan favorite, media favorite, will be called a locker room cancer, will set records on the ground and in the air, one of the most dynamic players in the NFL without a doubt. A playoff here and there, maybe even taking the Panthers deep into the winter. One thing that will be clear, Newton will be a must-watch every week that he plays in. 

NFL: Week Four Storylines

5.) Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals- The Buffalo Bills are in sole possession of first place in the AFC East. Don’t believe it? Yeah, me neither. The Bills are 3-0, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is making himself look like the best quarterback to come through Buffalo since Jim Kelly (Sorry, Doug Flutie). If the Bills play as well in this week as they have all season, it will be a blowout. However, the Bengals defense is no pushover, and Andy Dalton is starting to look like a solid NFL quarterback. If the Bills win in Cincy, they will go 4-0 for the first time since 2008. 

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers v Houston Texans- At the start of the season, many people were predicting that this be the year that the Houston Texans make the leap from good team to playoff team. So far the Texans are 2-1 after losing a shootout to the New Orleans Saints last Sunday. This week, the Texans face another test in the Steelers. It is said if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best, and last year the Steelers were the best in the AFC. If the Texans can knock a potential playoff team down a peg and beat Pittsburgh, it will send a message throughout the league that this year is the year for the Texans. 

3.) New England Patriots v Oakland Raiders- Last week gave us a four interception performance from Tom Brady and a 200+ rushing day for Darren McFadden. This week, the Patriots look to bounce back from a devastating loss to the Bills as the Raiders are riding high after beating the New York Jets and their “unstoppable” defense. Its never a good sign when a team flies across the country after a bad loss, so the Raiders are in prime position to capitalize and send a statement throughout the league that the silver and black is back. 

2.) Detroit Lions v Dallas Cowboys- The Lions are 3-0 for the first time in my lifetime. The Cowboys are coming off a tight win against Washington on Monday Night Football. Detroit has been the comeback kids of this young season, but their wins have come against Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City. The Cowboys represent the best team that Detroit has seen in the first four weeks, and a win in Dallas would be huge for the young Detroit team. 

1.) New York Jets v Baltimore Ravens- Rex Ryan makes his triumphant return to Baltimore, the place he was passed over for head coach three years ago. The Ravens went with John Harbaugh, and since then they’ve been in the playoffs every year. This season the Ravens and Jets have both had games where they look like Super Bowl contenders, and also games where they look like they won’t even sniff the playoffs. The Ravens demolished the Steelers in week one, only to lose a game to the below-average Tennessee Titans in week two. The Jets started off 2-0 before being run into the ground by the Raiders last week. Forecasts for Sunday night show 40 degrees and rain, and you know what that means; alot of defense, and alot of running the ball. Winner of this game will take a huge step forward towards the playoffs, while the loser will be left at .500 entering week five.