NFL: AFC Contender/Pretender

AFC: Contender/Pretender 

As we get to the last seven weeks of games, we’ve seen teams in the AFC look elite one week to horrible the next. Look at the Ravens, who after beating division rival Pittsburgh last Sunday lost to the Seahawks yesterday. Pittsburgh has gone from good to bad to great to good. The Jets lost three games in a row at the beginning of the season. Buffalo and Cincinnati came out of the gate looking like actual football teams. The Patriots look mortal. With such a logjam in the conference, it’s time to clear up the AFC playoff picture...its time to decide whose a contender, and whose a pretender. 

Baltimore Ravens (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Baltimore is one of the most confusing teams I’ve ever watched. In some games, such as against the Jets and Steelers, they look like the best team in the league. Then, when they play teams like Arizona and Seattle, they barely win or lose. That’s a good sign for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but the Ravens have too good of a defense to falter late in the year. I don’t know if it will be out of the division or wild card, but Baltimore should be a team that plays deep into the winter. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Buffalo Bills (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): It may be too soon, but you have to wonder if the Bills are re-thinking that $50 million extension they handed Ryan Fitzpatrick earlier this year. In the past two weeks, Fitzpatrick and the Bills have been held to poor performances against the Jets and Cowboys. Fitzpatrick completes a high percentage of his passes, but his arm is weak and he’s starting to make poor decisions with his throws. The Bills still have two games against the Patriots and Jets, along wit match ups with scrappy teams like Denver, San Diego, and Miami. They could be right back in the thick of things with victories over New England and New York, but I get the feeling that the slipper is coming off of this cinderella team. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; tied for 2nd place in AFC North): Yesterday, for the first time all season, Andy Dalton looked like a rookie quarterback. Dalton threw two interceptions and struggled against the Pittsburgh defense. The Bengals got off to a hot start with he benefit of playing poor teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Over the next seven weeks, Dalton and the Bengals will have to play the Ravens (twice), the Steelers, and the Texans before meeting up with St. Louis and Arizona. I can see the Bengals getting to 9 wins, but it takes 10 to get into the playoffs from the AFC in this day and age. If they can steal a game from Pittsburgh or Baltimore, they might sneak in. I don’t see it. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

Denver Broncos (4-5; tied for 2nd in AFC West): I’m going to get this out of the way right now, the Broncos are not as good as Cincinnati or Buffalo, but they might have a better chance at making the playoffs. Currently, Denver has the tie-breaker over Oakland and Kansas City. To me, it looks like no one really wants to win the division. The Chargers are playing like they never win, Oakland is as bipolar as any team, and Kansas City stinks. Denver, however, is a team with a great defense and a “quarterback” who can run it like no other. As history tells us, a strong defense and a good running game leads to victories. Somehow, someway, the Broncos keep winning. I don’t think they’re good, but they play in a division that can help them out. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Houston Texans (7-3; 1st place in the AFC South): It looks as though the Texans have already locked up the South, currently standing 2.5 games ahead of the Tennessee Titans. However, the Texans still have to play games against Atlanta and the Titans, so a late season collapse is not out of the question. For all the talk focused on the Ravens, Patriots, and Steelers being the AFC elite, the texans have quietly put together a strong season. Should they stay the course and make the playoffs, they’ll be a scary team to face. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

New England Patriots (6-3; 1st place in the AFC East): For as vulnerable as the Patriots have looked this season, they seemed to have turned it around after defeating the Jets last night. Now in soul possession of first place in the East, don’t look for New England to lose any ground in the coming weeks. When all is said and done, the Patriots will more than likely enter the playoffs with a first round bye and a top seed out of the AFC.

Verdict: CONTENDER

New York Jets (5-4; tied for 2nd place in the AFC East): The Jets had a chance to take first place in the East last night and squandered it. Corner man Donald Strickland got exposed by Rob Gronkowski all night. Now the Jets will have to compete with Buffalo, Cincinnati, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore for a wild card seed. They hold a tie breaker over Buffalo, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, and Bills in the next seven weeks. Knowledge says they can afford to lose two more games this season if they want to make the playoffs, but with that schedule it will be no easy feat. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Oakland Raiders (5-4; 1st place in the AFC West): I thought for sure that the Raiders would have fallen out of contention by now, considering Darren McFadden being injury-riddled and Carson Palmer being...well...Carson Palmer. However, the Raiders looked excellent Thursday night against the Chargers, with Palmer looking like he’s developing quite the chemistry with his receivers. With the Raiders in the division drivers seat, all they will have to do is hold off the Fighting Tebows of Denver to make the playoffs. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3; 1st place in the AFC North): If you were going to tell me that after 10 weeks the Steelers would have lost to Houston and the Ravens (twice) and still be in first place in the division, I would have called you crazy. For as weird as the Ravens have been this year, the Steelers have been weirder. Just like the Ravens, Pittsburgh can look dominant one week and porous the next. I think they have the experience and ability to make it into the playoffs out of the crowded North, but there is no telling who will win the division. 

Verdict: CONTENDER

Tennessee Titans (5-4; 2nd place in the AFC South): Oh, what could have been for the Titans this year. With Peyton Manning out and the Colts playing awfully, the Titans had a legit shot to steal the division. Then, Kenny Britt was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Chris Johnson only just got his first 100-yard rushing day (and first touchdown) of the season yesterday. The Titans are only 2.5 games back of Houston, but it may be a little too much too late for Tennessee. 

Verdict: PRETENDER

PREDICTIONS:

AFC East- New England Patriots (1 seed)

AFC North- Pittsburgh Steelers (3 seed)

AFC South- Houston Texans (2 seed)

AFC West- Oakland Raiders (4 seed)

Wild Card- Baltimore Ravens (5 seed)

Wild Card- New York Jets (6 seed)

Wild Card Round- Pittsburgh over New York; Baltimore over Oakland

Divisional Round- Baltimore over New England; Pittsburgh over Houston

Championship Round- Pittsburgh over Baltimore