NFL: Luck of the Draw

As we sit in week 7 of the NFL season, there are currently three winless teams left in the league; the Miami Dolphins (0-5), the Indianapolis Colts (0-6), and the St. Louis Rams (0-5). While there is still a whole bunch of football to be played and teams with wins still with the possibility of nabbing the first pick in the 2012 draft (what’s up Washington, Seattle, and Arizona?), today we’ll take a look at the three winless teams left in the NFL and evaluate their likelihood of not only getting the first pick, but also of whether or not they would draft star quarterback Andrew Luck out of Stanford. 

Miami Dolphins (0-5, 3 winnable games remaining): There are probably thousands of Dolphins fans that are already licking there lips at the possibility of landing Andrew Luck in the draft (in fact, they even have a "Suck for Luck" campaign circulating Miami). Since Dan Marino retired in 1999, the Dolphins have not had a franchise quarterback lead their team. Instead, guys like Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Jay Fiedler, Gus Ferotte, and now Matt Moore have been behind center for Miami. Luck provides the “face of the franchise” appeal that the Dolphins have lacked in the past 10+ years. Looking at the remainder of the Dolphins schedule, they have a very good chance to to be on the clock at #1 in April. Of the remaining 11 games in the season, I view only three of them as games that the Dolphins can win; week 7 against Denver, week 9 at Kansas City, and week 10 at home against Washington. The best shot they may have at a victory is actually this week against Denver. If the Dolphins had any strength on the team at all, its on the defense. Cameron Wake is an absolute freak as a pass rusher, and Vontae Davis is a solid corner. Denver comes in with Tim Tebow as the starter, a much more attractive matchup than Kyle Orton. The Broncos are horrible, if the Dolphins have any shot at screwing themselves out of Luck and the number one pick, its this week. 

Chances of landing the first pick: Very High

Chances they draft Luck: Undoubtedly 

St. Louis Rams (0-5, 4 winnable games remaining): The Rams may have the easiest schedule for the rest of the season among the three winless teams. It doesn’t hurt that they play in the NFC West, and with four meetings with Seattle and Arizona remaining, the Rams will have to be really, really bad to remain winless. However, if St. Louis keeps losing and gets the #1 pick, they will have a very interesting scenario on their hands. Two seasons ago, St. Louis drafted Sam Bradford out of Oklahoma with the first overall pick. Now, according to draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr. of ESPN, Luck is the highest rated player on his big board since John Elway all the way back in the 80s. Bradford was good coming out of Oklahoma, but he doesn’t have the potential that Luck has. Bradford played well last year and showed that he can play at this level, but if the Rams do end up with the first overall pick, they’ll go one of two routes. The first is shopping around that first pick. If the Saints were willing to part with an entire draft class just to get Ricky Williams, imagine what qb-hungry teams would do for the chance to have Andrew Luck as there starting quarterback. If the Rams don’t get any offers that attract them for that number one pick, then they’ll have to put Bradford out there for a trade. Bradford won’t yield as much as the number one pick, but at this stage in his career and with his high ceiling as a quarterback, he’ll get you at least two number one picks. I’m rooting for this scenario to happen, seeing a team that already has a young, good quarterback sitting in position to take Andrew Luck will make draft day all the more intriguing. 

Chances of landing the first pick: High

Chances they draft Luck: Likely 

Indianapolis Colts (0-6, 2 winnable games remaining): This has been the story everyone has been talking about since Peyton Manning went down for the season. I think its pretty clear to all that the Curtis Painter era won’t last past this season. But, what would the Colts do with the number one pick? More on that later, first it has to be determined if the Colts will even be in position to draft at the number one overall spot. Left on the schedule, I see only two games that Painter and the Colts could potentially win. They do play the Panthers in week 12, but I could see Cam Newton lighting that defense up. The only chance the Colts have to win this season are in their two meetings with division rival Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts play the Jags in week 10 and then again in week 17. With upcoming games against Houston, New England, and Baltimore, the Colts could enter week 17 at 0-15, at the cusp of the number one pick. The Jaguars are easily the weakest team on their schedule, but Blaine Gabbert has come along nicely and they  were able to hold the Steelers to zero second half points last week. Assuming that the Colts finish with the worst record in the league, it would make for a more unbelievable position than that of the Rams potential pickle. You have to presume that Peyton Manning, if fully healthy next year, will be able to compete and be the starter for the franchise he made relevant for another three to four years. So, do the Colts draft Luck and sit him on the bench for four years to learn under an all-time great? Or do they trade that pick for several number one’s and a couple 2011 picks. With those picks, the Colts could rebuild a foundation around Manning and give him more weapons to use. A wild-card scenario is that of the Colts shopping Manning around to the rest of the league. Manning will be 36 the next time he plays football (2012), and his neck injury is a huge red flag. What would it be like for a franchise to shop around their greatest player ever in favor for an unproven, albeit highly gifted, college quarterback? No one really knows what Jim Irsay and the Colts will be thinking in April, but it will sure be something to watch. 

Chances of landing the first pick: Very High

Chances they draft Luck: High (but who really knows)

NFL: Ranking the Quarterbacks Under the Age of 26

I made this list after realizing that in the past 4 seasons, the NFL season has seen a wave of young quarterbacks taking over the league. This list was originally supposed to be a 30-and-under group, but with established quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, and Ben Roethlisberger all in their 20s, it seemed better to rank the 11 starting quarterbacks under the age of 26. This list is not compiled based on skill today, but rather potential. An inside look at who will be the best quarterbacks 7-8 years from now, only on The Jockstrap. 

11. Curtis Painter- Indianapolis Colts (Age 26)

     Painter likely wouldn’t have been on this list if it weren’t for the neck injury of Peyton Manning and the concussion of Kerry Collins. Painter finds himself in the starting role for the 0-4 Colts. Although Painter has shown that he can throw a decent enough ball to Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, his ceiling is the lowest of this list. Painter will likely finish this season as the Indy starter and then remain a career backup for the remainder of his NFL days. 

In Ten Years: Backing up Andrew Luck for the Indianapolis Colts

10. Blaine Gabbert- Jacksonville Jaguars (Age 21)

     So far Gabbert only has two starts under his NFL belt. It was a shock to all when the Jaguars cut longtime starter David Garrard before the season, only to name journey-man Luke McCown the opening day starter. Gabbert took over in week 3 after McCown threw four interceptions in New York against the Jets in week 2. Gabbert has all the skills to be a solid NFL quarterback; strong arm, good pocket presence, and mobile enough to get away from tacklers. The sample size for Gabbert isn’t nearly as large as some of the other names on this list, but as of right now I don’t see Gabbert as the “savior” of the franchise that Jacksonville was looking for when they drafted him 10th overall in last years draft. 

In Ten Years: Gabbert will be a solid NFL quarterback, but nothing to get crazy over. Starting somewhere, but maybe not Jacksonville. 

9. Colt McCoy- Cleveland Browns (Age 25)

     McCoy is a winner, anyone whose ever watched him play in college knows that. He has a really, really weak arm by all NFL standards, but his mobility when the pocket collapses is really something. McCoy reminds me of someone who will never throw for 25+ touchdowns or make a Pro Bowl, but someone who will keep his team in games and maybe make a few playoff appearances. I would really like to see what McCoy could do with a receiving core where the #1 wasn’t named Mohamed Massaquoi. 

In Ten Years: If he’s still in Cleveland, a fan favorite for a franchise that has been heartbroken at the quarterback position over and over again. If it doesn’t last in Cleveland, he’ll be a great backup or solid starter somewhere. 

8. Andy Dalton- Cincinnati Bengals (Age 23)

     Picking between Dalton and McCoy was tough for who was higher on the list. They are very much the same, Dalton was just as much of a winner in college as McCoy was. The only reason Dalton is higher on the list is because of his makeup. Dalton looks and plays like someone who will succeed in the NFL. The only problem is, he plays for the Bengals. The combo of Dalton to AJ Green will be one that will have Bengals fans salivating over for years to come. 

In Ten Years: A few 25+ touchdown seasons, maybe a playoff appearance or two. 

7. Joe Flacco- Baltimore Ravens (Age 26)

     This is the part of the list where fairly established quarterbacks are ranked pretty low. Flacco was anointed as the long awaited “elite” quarterback the Ravens have lacked since their inception in 1996. Since he was drafted, I really haven’t seen Flacco progress dramatically. He’ll have his 3 touchdown days every now and again, but most of the time you’ll be seeing a game manager, and nothing more. Flacco possesses and arm that rivals that of any other quarterback in the league, but that means nothing if your not accurate and clutch in big moments. 

In Ten Years: I could see Flacco leading the Ravens deep into the playoffs, maybe even a Super Bowl birth down the line. The window is closing, however, with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis getting up there in age. 

6. Matt Ryan- Atlanta Falcons (Age 26)

     Coming out of Boston College in 2007, Ryan was easily the best and most NFL ready quarterback in the draft. Since then, he’s led his team to two playoff appearances,  three winning seasons, and an NFL best 14-2 record in 2010. However, I don’t believe that Ryan will be able to elevate his game high enough to get into the discussion of the Manning-Brees-Brady-Rodgers status. Ryan will throw for a lot of touchdowns and win a lot of games, but so far he has yet to win a playoff game, and that is a big red flag for his potential. 

In Ten Years: A fan favorite for the Falcons, taking them to several playoffs and even winning a few postseason games. Will make the Pro Bowls and have the stats, maybe even an MVP. But I don’t see a Lombardi Trophy in his future. 

5. Josh Freeman- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Age 23)

     Freeman is the type of quarterback that scouts salivate over. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s clutch. Last Sunday Freeman notched his 7th career come from behind victory in only 3 seasons as a starter. He wins, and he’s doing it will a pretty lackluster supporting cast. The only problem I have with Freeman is that I feel he has been overhyped, and that is hard to do when you play in Tampa. Freeman’s style of play is also an injury waiting to happen. Looking at it now, his career can go two ways: the next Ben Roethlisberger or the next Daunte Culpepper. 

In Ten Years: He’ll have his fair share of injury-prone seasons, but I’m confident that he’ll lead the Bucs to the playoffs one day. The only problem is playing in a division with Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan quarterbacking the other teams. 

4. Mark Sanchez- New York Jets (Age 24)

     Its probably not the best idea to rank Sanchez #4 after putting up the worst ever total quarterback ranking last week against the Ravens (0.6), but I have high hopes for Mark...and its not because I’m a Jets fan. Sanchez possesses the tools that you look for in a quarterback. He may be small by some measures, but the guy is a flat out winner. 4-2 in the playoffs in his first two seasons is a stat that not even Tom Brady can boast about. Sanchez will make a whole bunch of people scream with his poor decisions and average arm strength, but looking at this list if my team was down in the fourth quarter, I would want the Sanchize behind center. 

In Ten Years: Will have a successful career in New York. Will not be shocked if he leads them to more AFC Championship games, and a Super Bowl appearance is not out of the question. A solid offensive line would boost Sanchez’ turnover rate and completion percentage dramatically.

3. Matt Stafford- Detroit Lions (Age 23)

     Its great that this season were finally seeing what a healthy Matt Stafford can do. He has all the skill in the world, and it doesn’t hurt to have the most physically dominant wide receiver in the game on his side. The one thing that will forever hinder Stafford is his injuries. A china doll behind center is not a good sign, even with a good offensive line like they have in Detroit. The Lions, like Stafford, are young and ready to win both now and in the future. 

In Ten Years: Stafford will be a god in Detroit. Won’t be shocked if they make the playoffs this year or in the future. Will make Pro Bowl’s and garner MVP votes, but will miss at least another full season due to injuries. 

2. Sam Bradford- St. Louis Rams (Age 23)

     Bradford, like Stafford, is a site to see when healthy. One of the most accurate quarterbacks in the game right now to go along with a good deep ball. The only problem with Bradford is that his team is awful. The offensive line, receiving core, and defense all stink. Bradford is the face of the franchise, and will be for years to come. If he can stay healthy (he has so far in the NFL), and the Rams get him someone to pass to, he’ll turn a whole bunch of heads. 

In Ten Years: Will be a top-5 quarterback in the league. Pro Bowl’s, awards, there all coming his way. Will win the NFC West plenty of times, especially if it remains anemic. 30+ touchdown thrower for sure. 

1. Cam Newton- Carolina Panthers (Age 22)

     All spring and summer everyone talked about how big of a bust Newton was going to be. We all saw the “Gruden QB Camp” video where he couldn’t even draw a play from the Auburn playbook. We all knew that the kid was going to be the smartest quarterback of all time, that he may have a flash here or there of being a force...but did anybody see this coming? Newton came out of the gate with back-to-back 400 yard passing games, and through the first quarter of the season has racked up 1,386 yards passing, an 84.5 quarterback rating, and 9(!) total touchdowns; 4 on the ground and 5 in the air. Newton is a physical specimen the likes the NFL has never seen. a 6 foot 5 quarterback who runs like a wideout and barrels over defenders like a fullback. Who knows if the Panthers will be any good this season or the next, but one thing that is for sure is that Cam Newton is going to continue to drop jaws. 

In Ten Years: A Pro Bowler, fan favorite, media favorite, will be called a locker room cancer, will set records on the ground and in the air, one of the most dynamic players in the NFL without a doubt. A playoff here and there, maybe even taking the Panthers deep into the winter. One thing that will be clear, Newton will be a must-watch every week that he plays in.