For the last decade, there have been three teams in the AFC that have been the perennial contenders in the playoffs and their divisions. The New England Patriots have had a stranglehold over the AFC East since 2001. Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts have won seven division titles in the last nine seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been battling it out with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, capturing the division five times on their way to two Super Bowl victories in the last decade. Out west, the division has been fairly shared, with the San Diego Chargers most recently being the dominant team of the four (Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City the others).
While the Colts, Steelers, and Patriots have been the powerhouses of the AFC, they have always looked down at the “little brothers” in their respected divisions. The Patriots have dominated the New York Jets (more so than Miami and Buffalo) in the division ever since Mo Lewis knocked out Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Baltimore, while winning the Super Bowl in 2000, have always been second fiddle in the AFC North to the Steelers. Down south, the Houston Texans have yet to make the playoffs in their history, forever being overshadowed by Manning and the Colts.
2011 has brought about a bit of a change in the conference. As we stand in the midst of week 10, the Texans, Ravens, and Jets are all in either sole possession or tied for first place in their divisions. The Colts, without Manning for the year, are steamrolling to the number one pick in April. Pittsburgh is still one of the best teams in the league, but two of their three losses have come at the hands of Baltimore. Could it be that the old days of the AFC dominance by the holy trinity is over? Let us take a division by division look, analyzing the new and old of each.
In the AFC South, Houston has had the talent to make a playoff run for several years now. The final piece has seemed to be the arrival of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and the rejuvenated Texans secondary. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Ben Tate are successfully shouldering the load on offense while injured superstar Andre Johnson has sat out. It remains to be seen whether or not Houston is taking over the South. Without having to face a Manning-led Colts team, Houston is coasting to the division title. We’ve seen this year that the Colts are awful without Manning, so it could be that Houston is on the up-swing in the South, easily the most complete team among three rebuilding franchises in the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans.
The AFC North is much different than the South. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have consistently been the two major players in the division in recent memory. However, it seemed to always end with the Steelers in first place and Baltimore having to settle for a wild card entrance to the playoffs. Now, we see Baltimore apparently getting the Pittsburgh monkey off of their backs. The Ravens offense may be younger than that of the Steelers, but it is questionable how much time Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have left in their careers for the Ravens defense. The Steelers have Troy Polamalu locked up for the rest of his career, along with a young superstar in Lamarr Woodley at linebacker. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger are all still in their twenties for the Steelers offense. I’m not ready to say that this season is a changing of the guard in the North, but all signs point to it being the Ravens year. In the next two or three seasons we could see momentum switch back to the slightly younger Steelers squad, or we could see the Ravens and Joe Flacco create their own monopoly on the division. Either way would not shock me.
Which brings us to the AFC East. For years, Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck have ruled over the division like kings. Even in the Brady-less 2008 season, the Patriots came within a single game of capturing the division. The Bills appear to be on an up-swing of sorts, with young talent like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson leading the charge. However, I’ve always viewed this division as a two team race between the Jets and the Patriots. I have always said that no division lead is safe in the East as long as Brady is the starting quarterback for the Patriots, but this season the team has not looked as God-like as past years. They’ve currently dropped two games in a row and stand tied for first place with the Jets and Bills at 5-3. Comparing the two teams, the Jets and Patriots are both very young in spots and very old in others. On New England’s offense, Brady and the offensive line are starting to show their age. On defense, the Patriots have one of the youngest units in the league. The youth on D may explain why the Patriots have the 31st overall defense in football, but you have to figure that as the players mature the team will get better in coming years. In New York, Rex Ryan has young players on both offense and defense. Darrelle Revis and David Harris are just hitting their primes, while Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Mohammad Wilkerson and Kendrick Ellis are all young cornerstones for the defense. On the other hand, Bart Scott and Calvin Pace are both slow and old, while Plaxico Burress is attempting his comeback at 31. On offense, the Jets are still developing third year starter Mark Sanchez, supplying him with “youth” in Dustin Keller, Nick Mangold, D’brickashaw Ferguson, Shonn Greene, and Santonio Holmes. Both teams are “ready to win now” and built for the future. The race for the AFC East could be decided this Sunday night when these two teams square off on NBC. This division is the closest to call in terms of the changing of the guard. In New York I see youth and bravado, but with New England it’s impossible to look past the greatest quarterback-coach combo in NFL history and presume that they could ever fall off.
One thing is definite, this season has seen the “little brothers” of the AFC make strong statements in their divisions. Whether or not this is a precursor for a shift in the conference landscape remains to be seen. My advice? Let’s not all worry about who is falling off and who is rising, let’s enjoy these division races for the next seven weeks before the playoffs start and all logic gets thrown out of the window.
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